Articoli

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La regressione logistica per la previsione del rischio di default degli enti locali italiani. Profili teorici ed evidenze empiriche

Il presente lavoro intende testare l’affidabilità dei modelli econometrici per la previsione del rischio di default degli enti locali. L’obiettivo della ricerca è stato perseguito mediante un approccio metodologico di tipo deduttivo-induttivo. La fase deduttiva ha avuto ad oggetto l’analisi critica della letteratura, nazionale ed internazionale, in materia di crisi finanziaria dell’ente locale e modelli econometrici per la previsione delle crisi aziendali. Nella fase induttiva è stato sviluppato un modello logistico condizionato per studi caso-controllo in cui le variabili esplicative sono costituite da indicatori finanziari costruiti sui dati di bilancio. Il modello è stato testato su un campione casuale stratificato composto da 168 comuni italiani. I risultati dimostrano la validità del Cash Solvency (che misura la capacità di riscossione delle entrate correnti rispetto alle spese correnti), dell’indicatore di Incidenza delle entrate proprie sulle entrate totali e dell’indicatore di Indebitamento (che misura il peso dei debiti sulle entrate totali) come predittori del rischio di default.

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This paper aims to test the reliability of econometric models for forecasting the default risk of local authorities. The research objective was pursued through methodological approach deductive and inductive. Phase deductive has had to subject the critical analysis of the literature, national, international, in the area of local government financial crisis, and econometric models for forecasting corporate crises. In the induction phase, it has been developed a conditional logistic model for case-control studies in which the explanatory variables consist of financial indicators built on budgetary data. The model was tested on a random stratified sample of 168 Italian municipalities. The results demonstrate the validity of the Solvency Cash (which measures the ability of collection of current revenues over current expenditures), the indicator of the impact of own revenues on total revenues and the indicator of indebtedness (which measures the burden of debts on Total revenue) as the default risk predictors.

 

Key words: Local authorities, Default, Indicators, Logistic regression

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La governance dei comuni sui servizi pubblici locali

The municipal governance of Local Public Utilities

Public Governance issues are a focal point in the debate about Local Public Utilities (LPUs). In the last decades the organizations providing Public Services in European countries are experiencing key changes in their governance and control systems. The exponential growth of shared entities managing local public utilities resulted in a new role for local authorities, which now have to lead real business holdings of public limited companies delivering services to citizens. The Italian picture is characterized by an odd dichotomy between the mission of the local authority and the activities of the LPUs. Indeed, local governments need to keep LPUs under control and to be able to define how to provide services, in keeping with the principles of social rights and equity. The research aims at verifying the state of the art of Italian local authorities governance on their LPUs by means of a semi-structured survey with multiple-choice questions. The questionnaire has been submitted to a selected sample of Italian local authorities with more than 20,000 inhabitants (515 entities).

The main result of this study confirms the previous research: local authorities need to develop a structured multidimensional information system in order to better evaluate and control the competitive, social and environmental performances of their LPUs. To date, few local authorities use governance mechanisms to control their group of LPUs, while the vast majority lacks the required tools and consequently cannot apply appropriate governance on LPUs entities.

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Accountability e strumenti di rendicontazione sociale nelle province italiane

L’obiettivo di questo lavoro è verificare la diffusione della rendicontazione sociale all’interno delle province italiane, oggetto di particolare attenzione nell’ambito delle disposizioni per la revisione della spesa pubblica introdotte dal decreto-legge 6 luglio 2012, n. 95. Attraverso lo svolgimento di una ricerca empirica su tutte le province italiane sono stati analizzati gli strumenti utilizzati per la rendicontazione sociale, gli attori coinvolti e le criticità incontrate al fine di proporre delle indicazioni manageriali che potrebbero essere utili in fase di un eventuale accorpamento delle province e di un miglior utilizzo e diffusione degli strumenti collegati alla rendicontazione sociale all’interno degli enti locali.

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The purpose of this work is to verify the diffusion of social reporting among the Italian provinces, object of particular attention under the public spending review provisions introduced by Decree-Law 6th of July 2012, number 95. The tools used for social reporting, the players involved and the critical aspects were analyzed through an empirical research on all the Italian provinces. All this in order to propose managerial guidelines that might be useful in case of eventual unification of provinces and in case of better use of instruments connected to social reporting within local governments.

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Key words: Social reporting, Local authorities, Accountability

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La contabilità analitica: presupposto necessario e sufficiente per la determinazione degli standard di costo negli enti locali?

Management cost accounting: is it necessary and sufficient to determine local authorities’ standard cost?

From an accounting standpoint, the recent federal reform is based on the standard costs’ determination. However, to date, only 27% of the Italian local authorities have a management cost accounting system that, in theory, is able to calculate the standards. The aim of this paper is to verify if a local authority with a management cost accounting system based on cost centres is able to determine the services provided standard costs. To achieve this goal, the article carries out a case study analysis. The research confirmed that the effective identification of objective and, above all, coherent measurements with local realities is very difficult even with the presence of a management cost accounting system providing a proper basis for calculating standard costs. The cost standard determination requires a mature application of management cost accounting for cost centres or activities based, which, to date, most local authorities did not develop.